Mubarak and his closest cronies are gone, yes. But for deep change, Egyptian protesters must keep on battering at the interim Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and Prime Minister Sharaf.
Apparently they will have to fight for every square inch, e.g.:
- abolition of the notorious Emergency Laws
- end to the trials of civilian dissenters in military courts
- establishment of election laws that would allow candidates other than members of Mubarak’s technically disbanded political party and the newly legalized Muslim Brotherhood to win seats in the soon-to-be-formed parliament.
As Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Institution describes the situation:
The current dynamic – military imposes unpopular policies, protesters protest, military makes partial concessions, protesters protest partial concessions, and so on – has proven a recipe for failure, producing a patchwork of ill-conceived laws and half-measures. Often, the military uses the pretext of “stability” to sustain old practices, including emergency law, intimidation of the press, military trials, and even torture.
COMMON OBSTACLES
The liberal secularists who organized the January 25th revolt are up against formidable obstacles:
- The military and the Muslim Brotherhood may be in an unholy alliance - secretly agreeing that an elected Brotherhood will not challenge the military’s economic corruption.
- The military traditionally runs Egypt - from behind or right on the throne. It’s difficult to change a pattern that’s run from Ancient Egyptian times to the present.
- The military budget, almost totally financed by the United States, is a complete secret, even to the Minister of Finance. Democracy and transparency may not have meaning in their vocabularies.
- The lack of a reliable timetable to establish a democratic government discourages new economic investment.
- Workers (teachers, bus drivers, factory employees, physicians) are striking for higher wages and better working conditions, thus discouraging investors even more.
- The economy scratches bottom. The poor suffer most what with unemployment and horrendously high prices - particularly for food. Chicken, for example, is more expensive in Cairo than in Seattle. Were it not for the food subsidies on lentils, rice and beans, food riots would likely erupt.
- The moderate Muslim Brotherhood, which has serious internal dissension, also struggles with its relationship to the extremely conservative Salafis [http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/islam-salafi.htm} who seem to have entered the political scene quite out of the blue.
COMMON CAUSES
Parties are wrangling for their political niche - a new experience for Egyptians, but they are unanimous in opposing SCAF’s election laws (which mixed party slates and individual candidates) which are guaranteed to create chaos and to work in favor of big money in the new, larger electoral districts.
A “Take back the Revolution” demonstration on September 30 brought them together to condemn of election laws.
A week later, (October 8th 2011), SCAF rescinded the offending law and added new strong measures in support of free and fair elections. (see accompanying document from Al Ahram Online).
So goes the push/push back.
HOW ARE WE FEELING?
Many Egyptians are frustrated by this process, which is messy and anxiety-making. For people here, unfamiliar as they are with the messiness of democracy in the best of times, it’s all the worse.
Still I remain optimistic. Activists not only continue to a demonstrate but they are building the civic institutions the country desperately needs. At this point they seem to be concentrating on universities, schools and the labor movement - great places to begin.
Demonstrations and the threats of anti-corruption lawsuits have led to the forced resignations of most NDP political appointees who had been raking in up to a million dollars a year via, for example, 10% kick-backs from money budgeted for infrastructure.
School teachers formed an independent union and went on strike not only for better wages but to stop the pervasive ‘private tutoring’ in which many of them engage and which consumes up to 30% of the lower and middle class family income.
The labor movement is also hopping. I’ll write on that next time.
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