Eye On Egypt Blog

Depressed in Egypt: the Coptic demonstration.

Everyone, from cab drivers and street sweepers to doctors and professors is depressed about the disastrous demonstration by the Copts on October 9th in which mostly Christian civilians were shot. The violence against both sides was caused by "unknown forces" still unknown to this day which doesn't say much about military intelligence.

One friend, a Muslim supporting the Coptic demonstration got roughed up. She said trained snipers fired on people from the roofs of buildings. A well-known leader/activist was killed.

Doesn't sound random to me.

Some Christians reactions to the military are surprising. Of course, they are officially and rightfully indignant but privately I have heard some criticize the demonstrators for massing at time of such political tension.

The country is becoming chaotic. Everyone is on strike and there really isn't money to meet their demands for a living wage. The police, many of whom are still in hiding and certainly not back on the streets, are now demonstrating against the minister of interior, el-Essawi, demanding he cleanse the ministry of the previous minister, Habib el Adly, a Mubarak loyalist.

Still, 73% of the population still supports the army. I guess when you haven't any other choice you back the one you have. As one friend said, "The relationship between the Egyptian people and the Army is like a wife and her husband. She knows he's unfaithful but she stays because of the children."

I'm afraid that sums it up.

Amal Sedky Winter, PhD

Revolution in Egypt....Eight months later

Mubarak and his closest cronies are gone, yes.  But for deep change, Egyptian protesters must keep on battering at the interim Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and Prime Minister Sharaf.

Apparently they will have to fight for every square inch, e.g.:

• abolition of the notorious Emergency Laws
• end to the trials of civilian dissenters in military courts
• establishment of election laws that would allow candidates other than members of Mubarak’s technically disbanded political party and the newly legalized Muslim Brotherhood to win seats in the soon-to-be-formed parliament.

 As Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Institution describes the situation:
    The current dynamic – military imposes unpopular policies, protesters protest, military makes     partial concessions, protesters protest partial concessions, and so on – has proven a recipe for            failure, producing a patchwork of ill-conceived laws and half-measures. Often, the military uses the     pretext of “stability” to  sustain old practices, including emergency law, intimidation of the press,         military trials, and even torture.

COMMON OBSTACLES

The liberal secularists who organized the January 25th revolt are up against formidable obstacles:

• The military and the Muslim Brotherhood may be in an unholy alliance -  secretly agreeing that an elected Brotherhood will not challenge the military’s economic corruption.
•  The military traditionally runs Egypt - from behind or right on the throne.  It’s difficult to change a pattern that’s run from Ancient Egyptian times to the present.
•  The military budget, almost totally financed by the United States, is a complete secret, even to the Minister of Finance. Democracy and transparency may not have meaning in their vocabularies.
• The lack of a reliable timetable to establish a democratic government discourages new economic investment.
•  Workers (teachers, bus drivers, factory employees, physicians) are striking for higher wages and better working conditions, thus discouraging investors even more. 
•  The economy scratches  bottom.  The poor suffer most what with unemployment and horrendously high prices - particularly for food. Chicken, for example, is more expensive in Cairo than in Seattle.  Were it not for the food subsidies on lentils, rice and beans, food riots would likely erupt.
•  The moderate Muslim Brotherhood, which has serious internal dissension, also struggles with its relationship to the extremely conservative Salafis [http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/islam-salafi.htm} who seem to have entered the political scene quite out of the blue.

COMMON CAUSES
Parties are wrangling for their political niche - a new experience for Egyptians, but they are unanimous in opposing SCAF’s election laws (which mixed party slates and individual candidates) which are guaranteed to create chaos and to work in favor of big money in the new, larger electoral districts.

A “Take back the Revolution” demonstration on September 30 brought them together to condemn of election laws.

 A week later, (October 8th 2011), SCAF rescinded the offending law and added new strong measures in support of free and fair elections. (see accompanying document from Al Ahram Online).
So goes the push/push back.

HOW ARE WE FEELING?
Many Egyptians are frustrated by this process, which is  messy and anxiety-making.  For people here, unfamiliar as they are with the messiness of democracy in the best of times, it’s all the worse.

Still I remain optimistic. Activists not only continue to a demonstrate but they are building the civic institutions the country desperately needs. At this point they seem to be concentrating on universities, schools and the labor movement - great places to begin.

Demonstrations and the threats of anti-corruption lawsuits have led to the forced resignations of most NDP political appointees who had been raking in up to a million dollars a year via, for example, 10% kick-backs from money budgeted for infrastructure. 

School teachers formed an independent union and went on strike not only for better wages but to stop the pervasive ‘private tutoring’ in which many of them engage and which consumes up to 30% of the lower and middle class family income.

The labor movement is also hopping. I’ll write on that next time.