Eye On Egypt Blog

People of Egypt Deserve a Nobel Peace Prize

Feburary 12, 2011
Cairo, Egypt
www.myeyeonegypt.net

People of Egypt Deserve a Nobel Peace Prize

Today was the start of the new era. Everyone turned out to clean up the Square. By the time my cousin, her daughter and our grandchildren arrived with garbage bags and candy, almost every scrap of rubbish had been picked up.

Young people proudly polished the lions statues at the entrance to Kasr il Nil Bridge. Others washed off the “Mubarak must leave” graffiti from the walls under them. They brought tears to my eyes.
 
The message is: We will clean up Egypt! From the inside to the out!"

For the first time I can remember, people are proud to be Egyptian.  There's a look in their eye, a confidence in their carriage which is completely new.

We look forward to a civilian interim governing committee, a temporary constitution, a referendum, a new parliament and then a president. And, think of it, we can!

Which reminds me—thank you President Obama for your great speech in support of what we did in Egypt.

Now, I think we should get busy and nominate this country a Nobel Peace Prize.
 
Amal Sedky Winter, PhD
www.myeyeonegypt.net

The Moment Mubarak Resigned.

February 11, 2011
Cairo Egypt
www.myeyeonegypt.net

The Moment Mubarak Resigned

It happened in a minute.
 
Mohamed’s phone rang just as my grandson appeared at Cairo airport’s arrival gate. “Mubark’s resigned! He’s resigned!” my friend burst out.  We swept the jet-legged Philip into the great whoop."He's resigned!   Resigned!"

We left the airport high-fiving and thumbs-upping every which way and drove straight to Tahrir Square horn-honking the celebratory rhythm associated with winning soccer games--the only occasions Egyptians have had to celebrate for 30 years. We passed cars flying huge Egyptian flags and large eight-wheelers with blaring horns. The road filled with cars as we reached city center; people calling out, “Mabruk” -congratulations - and waving peace signs out the windows.
 
I’d planned on taking Philip to Tahrir to join the protestors. 

Instead one minute brought that trial of endurance to an abrupt end. Omar Suleiman announced Mubarak was leaving.  We rushed to  celebrate!

A crowd of millions; not an inch of pavement to be seen. Flags everywhere. Children on their parents shoulders. Young women in pony-tails; many more in hijabs; a few in full face veils; A toothless old man from upper Egypt; a farmer in galabeya, skull cap and scarf who'd been demonstrating for a week; a group from an outlying oasis chanted Bedouin songs; a middle-aged layer had been there for 18 days; peaceful people stretching further than the eye could see.

The lawyer said,  “This should have happened long ago. We let him do it. We made him who he is. Not anymore.” He was still coughing from the tear-gas he’d inhaled.

The young man next to him pulled out his cell phone with pictures 40 pellets in his back and head. But this was a night of celebration. “Everything was worth it, il hamdu liallah—Thanks to God.”

My friend Muhamed said, "I don't hate my country any more."

To those who worry about an Islamist take-over. Please don’t underestimate these people. And to those who worry about a military one. The chants were: “Civilian. Civilian. Not military rule!”

Amal Sedky Winter, PhD
www.myeyeonegypt.net

Mubarak's Lack of Resignation

February 11, 2011
Cairo, Egypt
www.myeyeonegypt.net

Mubarak's Lack of Resignation

Aljazeera reported 3 million Egyptians in the streets of Egypt. They waited 7 hours to hear what the army and the new head of the National Democratic Party (NDP) suggested would be Mubarak’s resignation speech. They were stunned by Mubarak’s non-resignation speech last night. Incensed by his speech, and only half way through it, they defiantly waved their shoes in the air. And yet they remained peaceful I don’t know how they did it.
 
Today there are a million people in and around Tahrir Square and noon prayers have not even started
I
 
The military’s upper echelon essentially is still standing by the regime and have issued a public communique:

• The emergency laws will be repealed
• Steps to insure a peaceful transition will be monitored.
• Those arrested will be released
• Egyptians should return to work and resume their everyday lives.

The question is whether or not the middle and lower ranks will follow the upper ranks. So far 25 of its members have turned in their arms and publically stood with the demonstrators.
 
The muezzin is calling noon prayers.

Amal Sedky Winter, PhD
www.myeyeonegypt.net

In Egypt, Who's got the power?

February 9, 2011
Cairo, Egypt
www.myeyeonegypt.net

In Egypt, Whos' got the power?

Yesterday, protesters refilled Tahrir Square in numbers not seen for a week or so. Institutions, like Cairo University and many businesses, were represented by demonstrators carrying signs which identified their institutions.  Mom, dad and the kids came in clusters asking for the same old thing: “Mubarak leave!”

Still a lot of people, in and outside Egypt, don’t understand why the protestors are not satisfied with Suleiman’s offer to dialogue.

As usual, the answer lies in the answer to the question: “Whose got the power?”

If Mubarak would, he could, but he won’t

 Hosni Mubarak has the power to transform the country overnight.  He could:

• Lift the emergency laws
• Instruct parliament to adopt a new constitution. Thoughtful Egyptians have been writing democratic and flexible constitutions for years. One could be selected, adopted and revised over the next few years.
• Call elections for new parliament.

Instead he offered government workers a pay raise. This is insulting. (1) It has nothing to do with the protestors demands. (2) It tells them he thinks he can buy them off.

Mubarak’s power

But let’s assume that Mubarak isn’t really running things anymore.  How about these new guys?

Unfortunately, thenewly appointed cabinet officers are as entrenched as he – raising serious questions about the wisdom of negotiating with them.

Omar Suleiman, Vice-president

The new Vice President was head of the military’s intelligence unit.  Said to be “obsessed with security,” he has close ties with America’s CIA and is implicated in the torture of Egyptians and rendition and torture of non-Egyptians.

In addition to protecting the country, Suleiman‘s military colleagues have  created a very profitable  business empire within the larger Egyptian  economy;  they have no desire to change the arrangement.

The president’s son, Gamal Mubarak and his pals threatened this arrangement in their enthusiastic pursuit of privatization. It was not a coincidence that Gamal and company were among the first to get out of the country when Suleiman was appointed.

Suleiman has every reason to protect the status quo.

Ahmed Shafik , Prime Minister

The new prime minister was chief of the Air Force, another part of a military long loyal to Mubarak. It attempted to mark Tahrir Square as their territory with low-flying F-16s.

Shafik demonstrates real attachment to the status quo.

 Muhammed Hussein Tantawi, Defense Minister

At 75, Field Marshall Tantawi is notorious for his long allegiance to Mubarak.  In spite of the fact that he wandered friendly among the protesters in the early days of the revolt, , he has a reputation for firm resistance to change or reform of any kind.

Tantawi is among those who “simply do not have the energy, inclination or world view to do anything differently.”

The Egyptian People’s Power

The basic requirement of a dictatorship is that the people be politically weak. Mubarak has systematically undercut them for 30 years, most directly by the Emergency Laws. So what have the people got to work with today?

The Protestors

Thus far, one leader of the protest has not emerged.  As mentioned in a previous blog, the protestors are a self-organizing mass.  They are said to have established a pro-democracy coalition with a 10 member steering committee and to have representatives on the Committees of the Wise.

• April 6 movement.

Considered a catalyst for the protest, the socially-networked April 6 movement first made its political mark in 2008 when it’s call for a strike in support of the workers at a government-owned textile plant in Mahalla al-Kubra.  One founder, Ahmed Salah, was arrested shortly after the beginning of this revolt.

We Are All Khaled Saied

This social networking site continues to galvanize the protestors. Wael Ghonim, a manager for Google in the Middle East, is credited with setting up the site and was jailed for 12 days.  His release on February 8 and emotional speech in Tahrir Square further bonded him to the protestors and they to their cause.

Committees of the Wise

Ammar Sherie is a renowned composer and musician. Naguib Sawiris made billions in the telecom business. Veteran diplomat Amr Moussa is the Arab League's secretary-general. This best known Committee  may have standing to get in Mubarak’s door but we can only guess at the chips they bring to the table.

Muslim Brotherhood :
Unique among forces opposing Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood has fixed constituency and a strong organization. Its knowledge of the people derives from decades of extensive social support for Egyptians. The Egyptian Brotherhood has trended to moderation in its 70 year history and   In 1972, it took a formal stand against violence as a political tool.  Thus far, it has worked quietly in support of the demonstration.

Mohamed el-Baradei

Highly respected internationally for his leadership of the International Atomic Energy Commission, el-Baradei is seen as suspiciously late-coming to Egypt’s protest.  He has, nevertheless, vigorously spoken out for democracy and, in the last few days, warned protestors that they shouldn’t negotiate anything until the regime accepts the need for structural change.  

Political Parties

El-Wafd

Originally an opposition party,  some of al-Wafd leaders have become suspiciously comfortable with the Mubarak regime; others have protested it. The split leaves the party weak.

Kifaya 

This coalition of political forces committed to the fall of Mubarak rose quickly mid-decade and then disappeared due to fragmentation among its numbers and violent assault – detainment without charge,  torture, sexual assault – by the government.  It never reached the grassroots effectively.

Tagammu

This weak, old leftist off-shoot of the Arab Socialist Party was invited to dialogue with the current regime.

No Choice

The Egyptian people are not vengeful. Most don’t want Mubarak humiliated, but they do want him to go and they do want structural change. Given the imbalance of power between the two groups, they may have no choice but to continue their public demonstrations.

Amal Sedky Winter, PhD
www.myeyeonegypt.net

 

Egyptian Revolution and the Inner Egyptian

February 6,, 2011
Cairo Egypt
www.myeyeonegypt.net

Muslim sheiks held hands with Christian priests in Tahrir Square today; the sheik raised his other hand, holding a Qu’ran, to the sky; the priest, a large gold cross. Both prayed for the Egyptian people.

A sixty-something, notably talkative friend of mine went to deliver food. She returned almost speechless. “Awe-inspiring” was all she could say.

But things are quieting down

• Committees of the Wise, members of the Muslim Brotherhood, and representatives of the demonstrators are meeting with Vice-President Omar Suleiman trying (so far unsuccessfully) to make a transition plan.
• Stores have reopened; ATMs restocked with money; people are back to work.
• School starts up again next week.
• Demonstrators take turns holding down the square and going home or to work. They bring back water, food and first aid supplies.

Who are these Egyptians?

In this calmer moment, I think about what the revolution is revealing about the Egyptian people.  Crises, I’ve learned as a psychologist, are perfect opportunities for observing an individual’s basic structure.  Similarly, I imagine, crises reveals a people’s nature.

So, what describes Egyptians?

• Communal and cooperative.

In Iraq, after Saddam Hussein was toppled, ethnic divisions surfaced. Here in Egypt, the crisis is bringing people together. Demonstrators manage problems organically–-creating  neighborhood watches, setting aside security zones, getting food, making space for medical professionals to work.

If you move from group to group in the Square, the conversations are different; so are the points of view; somehow decisions emerge.

• Abhor violence

Over 300 people have been killed in the last 14 days, but the people themselves can hardly be held responsible. The police and the thugs – who come from a different cultural category – attacked an essentially non-violent demonstration who managed to bring together people (once up to1.5 million in peaceful demonstrations for almost two weeks)

•  Enduring

I mentioned this in an earlier blog and so note only that the protesters themselves say, “If we could tolerate this Mubarak for all these years, we can easily stand fast in the Square as long as we need to.

• Joking

I wish I could translate the jokes but we all know that rarely works. Take my word: Egyptians have a hysterically funny perception of themselves. They’ve long been known for their sense of humor; apparently the revolution is sharpening it.

• Changing

Who would have guessed that this long enduring, non-confrontational people would get it into their heads that the old hierarchy doesn’t suit them anymore?

Unfortunately, the “Committees of the Wise” may not really understand the transformation of the Egyptian personality either. They’ve been buffered by their elite status.

Mubarak hasn’t got a glimmer; Suleiman is foggy.  He returned from a visit to Tahrir Square frustrated.  He told the people – these are adults - to go home; he even told their parents to make them go home.

He was baffled, “Why wouldn’t they listen?”

 

Tomorrow: The role of the Muslim Brotherhood in the transition.

Amal Sedky Winter PHD
www.myeyeonegypt.net

 

 

 

 

Negotiations in Egypt

February 5, 2010
Cairo Egypt
www.myeyeonegypt.net

Yesterday, “Committees of the Wise” put their heads together with Egyptian Vice-President Omar Suleiman and Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq to wrestle the constitutional barriers to President Mubarak’s  departure.  The goal is conclude the revolution constitutionally...and then write a new constitution.

The government doesn’t seem intimidated by discussions about its demise.  It continues to shut down businesses and blame protestors for the economic losses.

It accuses foreigners of importing  revolution and prevents Egyptian journalists from  reporting.  One was killed by a police sniper.

Americans squeezed and misperceived

On their way from the demonstration to update me, some Americans were stopped by the police then let pass because they didn’t have a camera. Returning to the square, they were again stopped, taken to a police station, interrogated and sent on their way.

Rumors say that America is pressuring the country to accept vice-president Omar Suleiman as an interim leader – which the people say is none of America’s business.

Xenophobia grows. One sms message read “7^th fleet on its way.”

People persist

Still, the middle is holding. In spite of cold and rain, the square holds. Negotiations continue.

Major  figures from Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP)have resigned from the party.

Amal Sedky Winter Ph.D.
Cairo Egypt

 

Egypt's "Committees of the Wise"

February 4, 2011
Cairo Egypt
www.myeyeonegypt.net

Egypt’s “Committees of the Wise”

While protestors holdfast in Tahrir Square, Egypt’s activists, intellectuals and political figures cluster in “Committees of the Wise” to figure out how to manage a transition.

All agree on certain requirements:

• Free and fair elections monitored by the judiciary and maybe international observers.
• Amnesty for those protestors who have been arrested
• Immediate removal of the emergency law which prevents even small groups of people to gather for a common purpose and which has made generous room for the state to arrest and punish those whose opinions it dislikes.
• Permission for candidates from any party to run for office.
• Investigation of corruption and establishment of systems to prevent further abuse. Some groups are likely to want to bring the corrupt to justice.
• New constitution.

More controversial are terms for interim administration of the country.  Some possibilities:

• Mubarak leaves the country and his current vice-president, Omar Suleiman takes over, provided Suleiman agrees to changes in the constitution noted above.
• Mubarak stays in office but delegates responsibilities to Suleiman (who has just announced this an unlikely scenario).
• Mubarak stays as he proposed.
• Someone not yet named leads the interim government. The most likely candidate is Amr Moussa, well-known for his political skill and past leadership. Mohamed al-Baradei, often mentioned in the west, does not have much popular support.

One of Egypt’s richest supports protest

Naguib Sawiris, owner of the Orascom telephone company and one of the world’s richest men , announced his enthusiastic support for the protestors.  He shrugged off concerns about loss of stockholders.

Others involved in the search for a workable transition are Dr. Ahmed Kamal Abul-Magd,  Salama Ahmed Salama, Jamil Mattar,  Dr. Amr Hamzawy, and Abdul Aziz Omar.

 

Modesty of the Muslim Brotherhood

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, long misrepresented by the Mubarak regime asaggressive and dangerous, is taking a modest position. It will not put up candidates for president in the hoped for “free and fair” elections, nor would its members accept cabinet appointments. It would, however, put forward candidates for parliament, as it has done in the past.

It has been illegal for members of the Brotherhood to run for parliament. Those who have stood have done so ran as independents – typically being arrested before voting day came round.

Outside influence

Egyptians are sensitive to any foreign intervention, although America might have more street credit had it spoken in support of the rights of demonstrators sooner than it did.

Still, sophisticated observers understand that America has interests in Egypt and, all things considered, may have played its hand well. It’s definitely awkward all around.

Of greater concern to many are attempts by Iran, in particular, to hi-jack the revolution

 

.

 

 

Grip of Mubarak's Fist

February 3, 2011
Cairo Egypt

Grip of Mubarak’s Fist

Yesterday,  Adham Bakry, 24-year-old Cairene graphic artist and protestor, was chased down by Mubarak’s people after Bakry gave an interview to the BBC.

Separated from his American companion, who was dropped off at the American Embassy, Bakry was roughed up, accused of being involved in a foreign conspiracy, shoved in a cab and dropped off in Bulaq Darfur, a poor district some distance from the Square and his home.

Mubarak’s vigilantes relieved him of his passport.

Bakry was demonstrating for social justice; his words were not inflammatory.

Sadly, some residents of Bulaq, misguided by a relentless flow of disinformation from the government, beat him up.

A young motorcycle-rider finally rescued Bakry–8 hours after he had been forcibly removed from the square.

He plans to return to the protest.

Anti-Mubarak protesters paid

Protesters are currently holding 35 men whose identity cards prove they’re employed by internal security. Others admitted to being paid by the government to beat up demonstrators.

HUH?

Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak’s new prime minister, was rumored to have threatened to resign over yesterday’s government attack on the anti-Mubarak demonstrations. He publically apologized for the clashes and promised to meet with the protestors and investigate the violence.

Curiously, Shafiq also claimed the government didn’t have enough police to control the situation. Egypt has 1 policeman for every 37 citizens.

In another turn of logic, he chastised the young for embarrassing the country. How could they presume to tell the government how to govern?

The propaganda machine continues beef up the people’s sympathy for Mubarak as a man who fought against Israel, loves his country and wants only to die in the land where he was born.

Egypt’s losses

It’s estimated that the Egyptian economy has lost 35 billion dollars in the past 10 days. Money is streaming out of the country with a tap of a computer key.

People are confused and frightened.  Rumors are rife.

 

Amal Sedky Winter, PhD

www.myeyeonegypt.net

Egyptian Empire Strikes Back

February 2, 2011
Cairo Egypt

Egyptian Empire Strikes Back

Hurling rocks and cracking heavy whips, government police and thugs – some of them on horses and camels - rammed the protesters in Tahrir square today.

This was not a spontaneous response by those who support Mubarak’s desire to stay in office until the elections. Egyptian television showed the captured attackers identification cards, proving they were police.  Others are known thugs.

In this cynical move, the government created the very instability and violence which President Mubarak deplored yesterday in his speech to the nation. The Egyptian people are well-known for their abhorrence of violence.

Mubarak also announced that the current parliament would be setting term limits for future presidents.

 

“Daddy Mubarak” preprinted signs

Anti-government supporters held their ground, calling for army protection.  More organized groups appeared to attack, in cadres of a hundred. They carried preprinted signs – hardly an expense possible for most protestors – reading “Daddy Mubarak and Mommy Suzanne, we apologize for the past days’ demonstrations.”

The protesters, ringed by the horse-riding attackers and their pedestrian accomplices, dug up paving stones. As fears of a blood bath rose, the people began praying

Even after two and a half hours of clashes, with many injured, the military stood aside. Although equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, the army allowed the 60 or so horse and camels into the square.

Many are looking to the international community to apply pressure to stop the assaults.

The regime propaganda machine, especially government television, has been in full swing, frightening the populace while calling for calm.

Deceit works

The combination of unprecedented concessions, campaign of disinformation, and staged confrontations have had their effect. Those less sophisticated—especially poor and uneducated—are beginning to support Mubarak, partly for the stability he promised and partly because of the deference they traditionally feel for their leaders. 

When King Farouk was deposed by a military coup in 1954, his exile was accompanied by a 21-gun salute.

The only good news

Rumors say that Ahmed Ezz, a friend of the president’s son and a parliamentarian, has been prevented from leaving Egypt. Habib Adli, the notorious Minister of Interior is said to be being held for investigation by army, which wastes no affection on him.

Amal Sedky Winter, PhD
www.myeyeonegypt.net

Egyptian Revolution: We'll just stay longer

Cairo, Egypt
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
 
“I used to call them the spoiled brats of the internet,” one Cairo woman confessed. “Now I kiss their feet,” she said, referring to young men and women who broke the Egyptian’s long record of endurance under a dictatorial regime.
 
Today, the seventh day of the revolt against President Mubarak and for democracy in Egypt, 2 million people are said protesting in Cairo.  Some have estimated 8 million nationwide; that’s 10% of the population and that, technically speaking, is a revolution.
 
In Alexandria, the people are standing shoulder to shoulder from one end of that long city to the other.
 
It’s not the usual protestors– like the Kifaya party (Enough) and the April 6 movement people. Everyone knows them
 
No. This is everyone: we see huge clusters of women in their bright colored scarfs - like a meadow in spring - and the men don’t even flirt with them because the ethic of protest is respect.
 
Crowds open up for people in wheelchairs and assist those walking with canes.
 
The people, once assured that the Army’s interest was in protecting them, fell into easy cooperation.  Troops and people parade side by side, Egyptian flags raised.  They work together to check people for weapons.
 
People who live near Tahrir Square cook for the protestors.  In Helwan, south of the city, supplies of cooking gas ran out.  Some of the young men in the area located supplies in a neighboring area and delivered them back to Helwan, door-to-door.
 
In the upsurge of pride, some protesters have pulled framed photos of Gamal Abdel Nasser, president of Egypt from 1954 to 1967, off the walls of their homes and wave them above the heads of the crowd – reminding their fellow Egyptians of the last time, during the pan-Arab movement, when they felt such self-respect and promise.
 
Everyone uses the same words of protest.  Everyone is on message.
 
There is no doubt that Mubarak is leaving.
 
Power of the Army.
It’s true that the army has tremendous economic power in Egypt and that they may be thinking of their own interests as well as those of the people in allying with the protesters.  But, in this country, the army is highly respected; it’s considered the institution of last resort and so far, they are deserving of that respect.
 
Furthermore, from a realistic standpoint, a revolution without their blessing wouldn’t succeed, if only because they hold that tremendous economic power.
 
Muslim Brotherhood, not.
The Brotherhood will not assume leadership.  Contrary to what many westerners believe, they don’t have the influence - fact seriously distorted by President Mubarak, who wanted to keep his US allies nervous.
 
Amr Moussa interim leader?
Amr Moussa, whose term as head of the Arab League ends on Wednesday, could be the best choice for an interim leader. He’s 73, has spoken for the people for decades and has been treated accordingly by the regime.
 
The people know him and respect him.  During the Africa Cup finals, President Mubarak appeared on the big screen to take credit from the players’ success. The crowds turned their flags down. When Moussa appeared, the flags flipped up.
 
America not looking good.
America is not looking good on the streets.  If Secretary of State Clinton has spoken one day earlier, it would have been acceptable.  Now the US is seen as too little too late.
 
We hear that the Americans are meeting with Mohamed al-Baradei, a big mistake. Here he’s perceived as being too far removed from the lives of the people, an impression he exaggerated by speaking to the people on television from the lush gardens of his residence.
 
Endurance of Egyptians
It used to be said that Egyptians can endure anything.  If one revolution fails, the joke goes, Egyptians would shrug and say, “there’s always next century.”
 
This time is different.  They’re using their capacity for endurance for their own benefit. Yes, food has run out in some places but, as with the cooking gas, people from other neighborhoods share.
 
Yes the doors of the shops are closed to prevent looting, but if you knock politely and say hello, they’ll let you in to shop.
 
Each challenge is met with a solution.
 
Each political disappointment is greeted with the response: “We’ll just stay longer.”
 
The mood is absolutely celebratory. People who have been disgusted by their country are standing up for it. They’ve stopped quarrelling among themselves for the few available spoils. In a class and gender–segregated society, this is a stunning achievement.
 
Amal Sedky Winter, PhD
www.myeyeonegypt.net