February 9, 2011
Cairo, Egypt
www.myeyeonegypt.net
In Egypt, Whos' got the power?
Yesterday, protesters refilled Tahrir Square in numbers not seen for a week or so. Institutions, like Cairo University and many businesses, were represented by demonstrators carrying signs which identified their institutions. Mom, dad and the kids came in clusters asking for the same old thing: “Mubarak leave!”
Still a lot of people, in and outside Egypt, don’t understand why the protestors are not satisfied with Suleiman’s offer to dialogue.
As usual, the answer lies in the answer to the question: “Whose got the power?”
If Mubarak would, he could, but he won’t
Hosni Mubarak has the power to transform the country overnight. He could:
- Lift the emergency laws
- Instruct parliament to adopt a new constitution. Thoughtful Egyptians have been writing democratic and flexible constitutions for years. One could be selected, adopted and revised over the next few years.
- Call elections for new parliament.
Instead he offered government workers a pay raise. This is insulting. (1) It has nothing to do with the protestors demands. (2) It tells them he thinks he can buy them off.
Mubarak’s power
But let’s assume that Mubarak isn’t really running things anymore. How about these new guys?
Unfortunately, thenewly appointed cabinet officers are as entrenched as he – raising serious questions about the wisdom of negotiating with them.
Omar Suleiman, Vice-president
The new Vice President was head of the military’s intelligence unit. Said to be “obsessed with security,” he has close ties with America’s CIA and is implicated in the torture of Egyptians and rendition and torture of non-Egyptians.
In addition to protecting the country, Suleiman‘s military colleagues have created a very profitable business empire within the larger Egyptian economy; they have no desire to change the arrangement.
The president’s son, Gamal Mubarak and his pals threatened this arrangement in their enthusiastic pursuit of privatization. It was not a coincidence that Gamal and company were among the first to get out of the country when Suleiman was appointed.
Suleiman has every reason to protect the status quo.
Ahmed Shafik , Prime Minister
The new prime minister was chief of the Air Force, another part of a military long loyal to Mubarak. It attempted to mark Tahrir Square as their territory with low-flying F-16s.
Shafik demonstrates real attachment to the status quo.
Muhammed Hussein Tantawi, Defense Minister
At 75, Field Marshall Tantawi is notorious for his long allegiance to Mubarak. In spite of the fact that he wandered friendly among the protesters in the early days of the revolt, , he has a reputation for firm resistance to change or reform of any kind.
Tantawi is among those who “simply do not have the energy, inclination or world view to do anything differently.”
The Egyptian People’s Power
The basic requirement of a dictatorship is that the people be politically weak. Mubarak has systematically undercut them for 30 years, most directly by the Emergency Laws. So what have the people got to work with today?
The Protestors
Thus far, one leader of the protest has not emerged. As mentioned in a previous blog, the protestors are a self-organizing mass. They are said to have established a pro-democracy coalition with a 10 member steering committee and to have representatives on the Committees of the Wise.
Considered a catalyst for the protest, the socially-networked April 6 movement first made its political mark in 2008 when it’s call for a strike in support of the workers at a government-owned textile plant in Mahalla al-Kubra. One founder, Ahmed Salah, was arrested shortly after the beginning of this revolt.
This social networking site continues to galvanize the protestors. Wael Ghonim, a manager for Google in the Middle East, is credited with setting up the site and was jailed for 12 days. His release on February 8 and emotional speech in Tahrir Square further bonded him to the protestors and they to their cause.
Committees of the Wise
Ammar Sherie is a renowned composer and musician. Naguib Sawiris made billions in the telecom business. Veteran diplomat Amr Moussa is the Arab League's secretary-general. This best known Committee may have standing to get in Mubarak’s door but we can only guess at the chips they bring to the table.
Muslim Brotherhood :
Unique among forces opposing Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood has fixed constituency and a strong organization. Its knowledge of the people derives from decades of extensive social support for Egyptians. The Egyptian Brotherhood has trended to moderation in its 70 year history and In 1972, it took a formal stand against violence as a political tool. Thus far, it has worked quietly in support of the demonstration.
Mohamed el-Baradei
Highly respected internationally for his leadership of the International Atomic Energy Commission, el-Baradei is seen as suspiciously late-coming to Egypt’s protest. He has, nevertheless, vigorously spoken out for democracy and, in the last few days, warned protestors that they shouldn’t negotiate anything until the regime accepts the need for structural change.
Political Parties
El-Wafd
Originally an opposition party, some of al-Wafd leaders have become suspiciously comfortable with the Mubarak regime; others have protested it. The split leaves the party weak.
This coalition of political forces committed to the fall of Mubarak rose quickly mid-decade and then disappeared due to fragmentation among its numbers and violent assault – detainment without charge, torture, sexual assault – by the government. It never reached the grassroots effectively.
This weak, old leftist off-shoot of the Arab Socialist Party was invited to dialogue with the current regime.
No Choice
The Egyptian people are not vengeful. Most don’t want Mubarak humiliated, but they do want him to go and they do want structural change. Given the imbalance of power between the two groups, they may have no choice but to continue their public demonstrations.
Amal Sedky Winter, PhD
www.myeyeonegypt.net
Thank you for today's interview on Seattle's NPR station, KUOW. Your voice is an important one, and I look forward to learning more from your website. I am also grateful to the Egyptian people for the ripple effects that their movements toward balance, order, and justice are having on our whole human family. May the wisdom of Ma'at be with all of our families and nations.
Posted by: Lisa Iversen, MSW, LICSW | 02/10/2011 at 12:39 PM
It was a great day when he discovered that speech could be used for narrative.
Posted by: Meizitang Capsules | 02/18/2012 at 09:31 AM